I have been reflecting on this Biya visit all night and the apparent embarrassment in Paris at the hand of Mo Ibrahim. What struck me at first was seeing Mo Ibrahim himself playing moderator and DJ of his own occasion.
Then I started to worry about the real objective of this Forum de Paris. Could it be we have been blindsided? Seems that while we celebrate Biya being exposed, humiliated and humbled, we are in fact witnessing the game of Master Chess laid down by Macron.
Biya who had avoided France like the plague all these years suddenly has reopened ties and is best friends with Macron who had been shunning him since coming to the helm of the French Government . This is the second or third meeting in the past few weeks between the two governments.
Since the days of Louis XVI the French economy has never been so badly threatened with ECOWAS countries attempting to break the stranglehold of the FRS CFA over their economies. Once that happens the rest of the French “outre mer” would follow suit and France would become a Third World Country as predicted by Jacques Chirac. Therefore France has to do something quick and desperately so. We all heard Macron call Europe to wake from its slumber otherwise…The alarm bells have been ringing for a while now.
On the other hand, Biya’s home work when he left Paris to join the Cameroun Government in 1962 is crumbling before his very eyes – He was instructed by the Masters to go back and ensure to undertake the assimilation of Former British Cameroons into French Cameroun. Over the past three years, it seems the project is unravelling and he can no longer assure the international community of his ability to keep the Anglophone Subjects in check. Suddenly they need each other Paris and Yaounde.
In your analysis consider the following:
- Biya seldom appears in public, is too superior to attend meetings even with African Heads of State, let alone submit himself to a lowly-lowly Civil Society Symposium where everyone is equal. The man does not grant interviews especially if they are not rehearsed and choreographed in advance. Could it be the Paris Forum was set up to make him come across as a genuine, caring leader whose attempts at finding solutions have failed and needs the support of the international community? People let’s think!
- The recent booting of Cameroon from AGOA by the US Government was signal that “l’heure est grave”. Desperate times require desperate measures. Biya is fast losing international friends and would clutch at a straw. Would clutch at a serpent if that is what would save him from drowning. And what a serpent he found!
- A symposium has been orgnised which enables the international community to come and BEG FRANCE to intervene in the Cameroons crisis …hhhmmm interesting. So I guess we should look forward to a reluctant France saying “we didn’t really want to get involved in other people’s business but since you insist…well we do not have that many soldiers available but we can spare some 5000 forces for the first semester and see how it goes. We may only consider augmenting that number if you organise another conference and BEG us. But we do not want to be accused by anyone of interferinc in the affairs of our former colonies”. What a master struck of chess play!
- Switzerland and France seem to be at loggerheads for control of Cameroon’s resources with the Bollore Affair. Could this be Paris’ initiative to scupper the Swiss efforts? Why is it that while Canada, the United States and others have favoured the Swiss Dialogue initiative, Paris has chosen to open up parallel efforts? Remember that the Paris Forum is to sell Biya’s Special Status Agenda to the International Community. You need to dig deep and analyse this. Below the smoke is the fire. Talk to your contacts.
So while we who know him are celebrating a weak and helpless Biya, perhaps what the world outside that does not understand his game is seeing is an ELDERLY FATHER OF THE NATION going abroad to seek solutions for his DEAR COUNTRY in turmoil. Setting the stage in Paris is quite strategic.
WHAT we should be asking is what has Biya given in return for France’s help? We understand that for years he had refused to sign the “Accords de Cooperation” or what is commonly known as the Renewal of the Colonial Pact with France which cedes 85% of the countries revenue to French control and ownership. Could it be that he finally signed? Like King Lear said “Nothing brings Nothing”. There are no free lunches. So what is France getting in return for this small favour?
We have to understand that Cameroun remains the single major pillar on which the FRANCEAFRIQUE has always hinged. And Southern Cameroons is the farm that keeps this enterprise alive. Biya has knowingly kept that card in his back pocket waiting for the right moment to play it. “Reste au pouvoir celui qui peut et non qui veut”
So I am afraid that while we have spent time celebrating how Biya was embarrassed and humiliated in France, he might just have outplayed us in a game of International Poker.
SCCOP as a movement prides itself on our array of intellectual minds. This is the time to get those brains working, knock on the doors of our friends in some important places and dig to get a bit more information. It’s too early to celebrate the Fall of Biya. By going out of his way to show his vulnerabilities, he might have just gained the sympathy of the international community and in the process of clutching the serpent taken us right back to the tree of forbidden fruits.
Lets get to work!